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Cryptocurrency arbitrage made easy: A beginner's guide ...
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Ultimate glossary of crypto currency terms, acronyms and abbreviations
Investing in crypto currencies with Nimbus Platform
Another of my ways to generate income today is the Nimbus Platform. In fact, it is the one that generates the most income for me, with an approximate income of $2000/month. We can earn from 7.5% to 12% depending on our initial investment. It is a very easy to use platform and its system is based on an automatic arbitrage bot on crypto currencies. They basically buy, for example, Bitcoin in an exchange at one price and sell it in another at a higher price. This formula is totally legal and safe, since the operation is only performed when the system detects an opportunity to make a profit with arbitration. If you want to read more about this trading platform, you can visit my website https://nimbusplatform.app/, where I explain the entire system and provide you with the link to create your free investor account. There you will also find my direct contact by Whatsapp to resolve any questions you may have.
It is no doubt Grayscale’s booming popularity as a mainstream investment has caused a lot of community hullabaloo lately. As such, I felt it was worth making a FAQ regarding the topic. I’m looking to update this as needed and of course am open to suggestions / adding any questions. The goal is simply to have a thread we can link to anyone with questions on Grayscaleand its products. Instead of explaining the same thing 3 times a day, shoot those posters over to this thread.My hope is that these questions are answered in a fairly simple and easy to understand manner. I think as the sub grows it will be a nice reference point for newcomers. Disclaimer: I do NOT work for Grayscale and as such am basing all these answers on information that can be found on their website / reports. (Grayscale’s official FAQ can be found here). I also do NOT have a finance degree, I do NOT have a Series 6 / 7 / 140-whatever, and I do NOT work with investment products for my day job. I have an accounting background and work within the finance world so I have the general ‘business’ knowledge to put it all together, but this is all info determined in my best faith effort as a layman. The point being is this --- it is possible I may explain something wrong or missed the technical terms, and if that occurs I am more than happy to update anything that can be proven incorrect Everything below will be in reference to ETHE but will apply to GBTC as well.If those two segregate in any way, I will note that accordingly.
ETHE is essentially a stock that intends to loosely track the price of ETH. It does so by having each ETHE be backed by a specific amount of ETH that is held on chain. Initially, the newly minted ETHE can only be purchased by institutions and accredited investors directly from Grayscale. Once a year has passed (6 months for GBTC) it can then be listed on the OTCQX Best Market exchange for secondary trading. Once listed on OTCQX, anyone investor can purchase at this point. Additional information on ETHE can be found here.
So ETHE is an ETF?
No. For technical reasons beyond my personal understandings it is not labeled an ETF. I know it all flows back to the “Securities Act Rule 144”, but due to my limited knowledge on SEC regulations I don’t want to misspeak past that. If anyone is more knowledgeable on the subject I am happy to input their answer here.
How long has ETHE existed?
ETHE was formed 12/14/2017. GBTC was formed 9/25/2013.
How is ETHE created?
The trust will issue shares to “Authorized Participants” in groups of 100 shares (called baskets). Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create these baskets and they do it on behalf of the investor. Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 39 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here Note – The way their reports word this makes it sound like there is an army of authorizers doing the dirty work, but in reality there is only one Authorized Participant. At this moment the “Genesis” company is the sole Authorized Participant. Genesis is owned by the “Digital Currency Group, Inc.” which is the parent company of Grayscale as well. (And to really go down the rabbit hole it looks like DCG is the parent company of CoinDesk and is “backing 150+ companies across 30 countries, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Chainalysis.”) Source: Digital Currency Group, Inc. informational section on page 77 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here Source: Barry E. Silbert informational section on page 75 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
How does Grayscale acquire the ETH to collateralize the ETHE product?
An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned.
Cash: The investor pays the subscription amount in cash and the Authorized Participant will use that cash to purchase ETH.
ETH: The investor transfers the ETH to the Authorized Participant, which will contribute the ETH in-kind to the Trust.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 40 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Where does Grayscale store their ETH? Does it have a specific wallet address we can follow?
ETH is stored with Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC. I am unaware of any specific address or set of addresses that can be used to verify the ETH is actually there. As an aside - I would actually love to see if anyone knows more about this as it’s something that’s sort of peaked my interest after being asked about it… I find it doubtful we can find that however. Source: Part C. Business Information, Item 8, subsection A. on page 16 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Can ETHE be redeemed for ETH?
No, currently there is no way to give your shares of ETHE back to Grayscale to receive ETH back. The only method of getting back into ETH would be to sell your ETHE to someone else and then use those proceeds to buy ETH yourself. Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Why are they not redeeming shares?
I think the report summarizes it best:
Redemptions of Shares are currently not permitted and the Trust is unable to redeem Shares. Subject to receipt of regulatory approval from the SEC and approval by the Sponsor in its sole discretion, the Trust may in the future operate a redemption program. Because the Trust does not believe that the SEC would, at this time, entertain an application for the waiver of rules needed in order to operate an ongoing redemption program, the Trust currently has no intention of seeking regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the fee structure?
ETHE has an annual fee of 2.5%. GBTC has an annual fee of 2.0%. Fees are paid by selling the underlying ETH / BTC collateralizing the asset. Source: ETHE’s informational page on Grayscale’s website - Located Here Source: Description of Trust on page 31 & 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the ratio of ETH to ETHE?
At the time of posting (6/19/2020) each ETHE share is backed by .09391605 ETH. Each share of GBTC is backed by .00096038 BTC. ETHE & GBTC’s specific information page on Grayscale’s website updates the ratio daily – Located Here For a full historical look at this ratio, it can be found on the Grayscale home page on the upper right side if you go to Tax Documents > 2019 Tax Documents > Grayscale Ethereum Trust 2019 Tax Letter.
Why is the ratio not 1:1? Why is it always decreasing?
While I cannot say for certain why the initial distribution was not a 1:1 backing, it is more than likely to keep the price down and allow more investors a chance to purchase ETHE / GBTC. As noted above, fees are paid by selling off the ETH collateralizing ETHE. So this number will always be trending downward as time goes on. Source: Description of Trust on page 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
I keep hearing about how this is locked supply… explain?
As noted above, there is currently no redemption program for converting your ETHE back into ETH. This means that once an ETHE is issued, it will remain in circulation until a redemption program is formed --- something that doesn’t seem to be too urgent for the SEC or Grayscale at the moment. Tiny amounts will naturally be removed due to fees, but the bulk of the asset is in there for good. Knowing that ETHE cannot be taken back and destroyed at this time, the ETH collateralizing it will not be removed from the wallet for the foreseeable future. While it is not fully locked in the sense of say a totally lost key, it is not coming out any time soon. Per their annual statement:
The Trust’s ETH will be transferred out of the ETH Account only in the following circumstances: (i) transferred to pay the Sponsor’s Fee or any Additional Trust Expenses, (ii) distributed in connection with the redemption of Baskets (subject to the Trust’s obtaining regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program and the consent of the Sponsor), (iii) sold on an as-needed basis to pay Additional Trust Expenses or (iv) sold on behalf of the Trust in the event the Trust terminates and liquidates its assets or as otherwise required by law or regulation.
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Grayscale now owns a huge chunk of both ETH and BTC’s supply… should we be worried about manipulation, a sell off to crash the market crash, a staking cartel?
First, it’s important to remember Grayscale is a lot more akin to an exchange then say an investment firm. Grayscale is working on behalf of its investors to create this product for investor control. Grayscale doesn’t ‘control’ the ETH it holds any more then Coinbase ‘controls’ the ETH in its hot wallet. (Note: There are likely some varying levels of control, but specific to this topic Grayscale cannot simply sell [legally, at least] the ETH by their own decision in the same manner Coinbase wouldn't be able to either.) That said, there shouldn’t be any worry in the short to medium time-frame. As noted above, Grayscale can’t really remove ETH other than for fees or termination of the product. At 2.5% a year, fees are noise in terms of volume. Grayscale seems to be the fastest growing product in the crypto space at the moment and termination of the product seems unlikely. IF redemptions were to happen tomorrow, it’s extremely unlikely we would see a mass exodus out of the product to redeem for ETH. And even if there was incentive to get back to ETH, the premium makes it so that it would be much more cost effective to just sell your ETHE on the secondary market and buy ETH yourself. Remember, any redemption is up to the investors and NOT something Grayscale has direct control over.
Yes, but what about [insert criminal act here]…
Alright, yes. Technically nothing is stopping Grayscale from selling all the ETH / BTC and running off to the Bahamas (Hawaii?). BUT there is no real reason for them to do so. Barry is an extremely public figure and it won’t be easy for him to get away with that. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust creates SEC reports weekly / bi-weekly and I’m sure given the sentiment towards crypto is being watched carefully. Plus, Grayscale is making tons of consistent revenue and thus has little to no incentive to give that up for a quick buck.
That’s a lot of ‘happy little feels’ Bob, is there even an independent audit or is this Tether 2.0?
Actually yes, an independent auditor report can be found in their annual reports. It is clearly aimed more towards the financial side and I doubt the auditors are crypto savants, but it is at least one extra set of eyes. Auditors are Friedman LLP – Auditor since 2015. Source: Independent Auditor Report starting on page 116 (of the PDF itself) of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here As mentioned by user TheCrpytosAndBloods (In Comments Below), a fun fact:
The company’s auditors Friedman LLP were also coincidentally TetheBitfinex’s auditors until They controversially parted ways in 2018 when the Tether controversy was at its height. I am not suggesting for one moment that there is anything shady about DCG - I just find it interesting it’s the same auditor.
“Grayscale sounds kind of lame” / “Not your keys not your crypto!” / “Why is anyone buying this, it sounds like a scam?”
Welp, for starters this honestly is not really a product aimed at the people likely to be reading this post. To each their own, but do remember just because something provides no value to you doesn’t mean it can’t provide value to someone else. That said some of the advertised benefits are as follows:
Access to trading within a tax advantaged retirement account
Institutions can easily and safely get exposure to crypto in a more legal-friendly manner
Ease of use for those who are not very technologically savvy
Ease of access for someone who doesn’t want to set up a Coinbase account
Perceived trust in institutional platforms over something like Coinbase or Kraken
Degen traders who just want access to the volatility ETHE provides that have no interest in crypto beyond that
So for example, I can set up an IRA at a brokerage account that has $0 trading fees. Then I can trade GBTC and ETHE all day without having to worry about tracking my taxes. All with the relative safety something like E-Trade provides over Binance. As for how it benefits the everyday ETH holder? I think the supply lock is a positive. I also think this product exposes the Ethereum ecosystem to people who otherwise wouldn’t know about it.
Why is there a premium? Why is ETHE’s premium so insanely high compared to GBTC’s premium?
There are a handful of theories of why a premium exists at all, some even mentioned in the annual report. The short list is as follows:
ETHE is NOT redeeming shares and as such doesn’t have an effective arbitrage mechanism
ETHE has a 1 year wait to be sold on the secondary market, again negating the ability to effectively arbitrage the premium
People may simply be willing to pay a premium for the benefits stated above.
Why is ETHE’s so much higher the GBTC’s? Again, a few thoughts:
ETHE hasn’t been around as long, so there is less secondary market supply to go around
ETHE was listed at an insanely high premium to begin with
ETHE might simply be more popular at the moment
Could just be sheer stupidity (investors think ETHE is a 1:1 ratio not 1:11)
Are there any other differences between ETHE and GBTC?
I touched on a few of the smaller differences, but one of the more interesting changes is GBTC is now a “SEC reporting company” as of January 2020. Which again goes beyond my scope of knowledge so I won’t comment on it too much… but the net result is GBTC is now putting out weekly / bi-weekly 8-K’s and annual 10-K’s. This means you can track GBTC that much easier at the moment as well as there is an extra layer of validity to the product IMO.
I’m looking for some statistics on ETHE… such as who is buying, how much is bought, etc?
There is a great Q1 2020 report I recommend you give a read that has a lot of cool graphs and data on the product. It’s a little GBTC centric, but there is some ETHE data as well. It can be found here hidden within the 8-K filings.Q1 2020 is the 4/16/2020 8-K filing. For those more into a GAAP style report see the 2019 annual 10-K of the same location.
Is Grayscale only just for BTC and ETH?
No, there are other products as well. In terms of a secondary market product, ETCG is the Ethereum Classic version of ETHE. Fun Fact – ETCG was actually put out to the secondary market first. It also has a 3% fee tied to it where 1% of it goes to some type of ETC development fund. In terms of institutional and accredited investors, there are a few ‘fan favorites’ such as Bitcoin Cash, Litcoin, Stellar, XRP, and Zcash. Something called Horizion (Backed by ZEN I guess? Idk to be honest what that is…). And a diversified Mutual Fund type fund that has a little bit of all of those. None of these products are available on the secondary market.
Are there alternatives to Grayscale?
I know they exist, but I don’t follow them. I’ll leave this as a “to be edited” section and will add as others comment on what they know. Per user Over-analyser (in comments below):
As asked by pegcity - Okay so I was under the impression you can just give them your own ETH and get ETHE, but do you get 11 ETHE per ETH or do you get the market value of ETH in USD worth of ETHE?
I have always understood that the ETHE issued directly through Grayscale is issued without the premium. As in, if I were to trade 1 ETH for ETHE I would get 11, not say only 2 or 3 because the secondary market premium is so high. And if I were paying cash only I would be paying the price to buy 1 ETH to get my 11 ETHE. Per page 39 of their annual statement, it reads as follows:
The Trust will issue Shares to Authorized Participants from time to time, but only in one or more Baskets (with a Basket being a block of 100 Shares). The Trust will not issue fractions of a Basket. The creation (and, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redemption) of Baskets will be made only in exchange for the delivery to the Trust, or the distribution by the Trust, of the number of whole and fractional ETH represented by each Basket being created (or, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redeemed), which is determined by dividing (x) the number of ETH owned by the Trust at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the trade date of a creation or redemption order, after deducting the number of ETH representing the U.S. dollar value of accrued but unpaid fees and expenses of the Trust (converted using the ETH Index Price at such time, and carried to the eighth decimal place), by (y) the number of Shares outstanding at such time (with the quotient so obtained calculated to one one-hundred-millionth of one ETH (i.e., carried to the eighth decimal place)), and multiplying such quotient by 100 (the “Basket ETH Amount”). All questions as to the calculation of the Basket ETH Amount will be conclusively determined by the Sponsor and will be final and binding on all persons interested in the Trust. The Basket ETH Amount multiplied by the number of Baskets being created or redeemed is the “Total Basket ETH Amount.” The number of ETH represented by a Share will gradually decrease over time as the Trust’s ETH are used to pay the Trust’s expenses. Each Share represented approximately 0.0950 ETH and 0.0974 ETH as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively.
Money is a lot more complex than authors realize (40k, Metro, WoW, D&D, IRL)
One of the “easier” ways to create a unique world is to choose a different form of currency. It’s something people notice, since money is ubiquitous. The issue is that money is fairly well developed. It needs to have certain features, or else it flat out doesn’t work. Examples In Warhammer 40k, orks use their own teeth as currency. Since every ork has access to teeth, there isn't absolute poverty. Since the teeth decay, hoarding teeth isn't feasible, and it means that orks need to constantly try to expand to get more teeth. Since every ork gives teeth in a tax to their boss, it means that war bands constantly expand and fight, giving the combat happy bastards yet another reason to go to war. A huge amount of fantasy universes use copper, silver, and gold as currencies. Metro uses ammo. In real life, we see many alternative, and ineffective, currencies, ranging from company script, to cryptocurrency, to hyperinflationary national fiat currency, to precious metal based money. Background The issue is that all of these are fundamentally flawed in some way as a currency, rendering the economy of that location extremely vulnerable to various shocks that would rightfully upend the entire economy. A currency fills three major roles 1. A medium of exchange. 2. A store of value. 3. A unit of account. A medium of exchange means that it is accepted by enough people as having value to be used for trade. Rather than needing to find someone who wants your goods to trade in a chain for something you want (like in every Zelda trading questline), you just give them money and they give you the item. This is why money is more efficient pure barter. It acts to lubricate transactions between peoples. A store of value means that you won't see all your wealth disappear if you don't spend it now. Which means that you can save up for major purchases, you can make deals that last for years (like mortgages), and people can actually retire on what they’ve earned over the course of their life. A unit of account means that you know the value of the money and it is standardized. Imagine if the only form of money was in fine art. You could exchange a Van Gogh for a house, and a large spiky suspended ball for a car. Art could fit as a medium of exchange and a store of value, but actually trying to compare artwork to artwork would drive people insane quickly. You'd be in the situation that a dollar isn't worth a dollar, or one Van Gogh isn't worth another Van Gogh. There is no way to convert between lesser and more valuable pieces in a logical manner. Now, why is that relevant? Because a huge amount of monetary systems in fiction fail these requirements and allow for overt exploitation or unduly hamper the government's ability to respond to threats. Problems With regards to the ork teeth, what is functionally happening is constant hyperinflation. Since the teeth decay, there is explicitly no store of value. Which means that the only orks who can afford the best and most fun toys are the warbosses and WAAGH! leaders. There are probably billions of orks who just want to save up for a spaceship or motorcycle or set up a Squig farm of their own, but will never be able to because their money falls apart before their eyes. Somewhat more seriously, for a race dedicated to war, constantly decaying teeth means that the number of war bands that can attack space based shipping or otherwise need more complex and expensive equipment is limited, reducing the race's overall effectiveness in combat. By attempting to be clever with inflation, by making it so that it couldn't happen, they created the effects of hyperinflation. And, since it is still a money based system, that means that a race designed to go to war can't do it as effectively as they should. In WoW or D&D or any of a dozen universes where wealth is metal based, using multiple metals as various values of currency would have a similarly debilitating problem. It destroys the unit of account. Basically, the government sets an exchange rate between the chunks of metal, making gold 10x as expensive as silver which is 10x as expensive as copper. But the rarity and expense of gold isn't 100x as much as copper. It is usually much much more. So, it makes counterfeiting extremely attractive, since you can produce 100 small value coins, of the actual metal, and exchange them for a coin of much higher value. Or if it is in the other direction, where you can exchange something where the face value is less than the value of the metal, all the government is doing is funding a small extremely active and profitable metal reclamation industry. This would be an ongoing and unavoidable issue, one that could cripple a government attempting to keep enough money in circulation, or cripple business if the government failed to intervene in an ongoing manner. Metro has the same issue of lacking a unit of account. The value of a bullet depends on what you're facing and what weapons you have. Even if the nominal value of a .50 cal armor piercing round is high, the number of people who can use it is very low. Consequently, you'll see the value change and possibly invert, as use brings more common rounds out of circulation and makes the more expensive rounds increasingly obviously useless. Without a set value across the board, or something interchangeable and universal, the currency itself will always be in flux, making for a really really shitty form of money. And a fairly cursory read of human history reveals why being inventive with money is a bad idea. Company script is money that doesn't function as a medium of exchange. It acts to tie people to a small location and punishes merchants, intentionally gimping economic power of consumers. Bitcoin, aside from arguably not working as a medium of exchange, fails as a store of value. It is inconsistent and disconnected from reality, making any long term contract in it unfeasible. It has many of the same problems as hyperinflation, except you don't know which direction the value will go. Less common now, but currencies that are based on the weight of an amount of precious metal suffered from failing as a unit of account. As gold coins were chipped, sweated, plugged, adulterated, or otherwise debased, the value of the coin and the face value became disconnected, and a buyer was dependent on merchants being trustworthy with their scales. Functionally, money is the way it is because it works fairly well, and the obvious alternatives tend to fail in overt ways. Attempting to be clever with monetary solutions isn't really feasible most of the time. Solutions So, are there any currencies that actually make some degree of sense in world, and aren't just "GOLD FOR ALL"? Surprisingly, yes. Fallout's bottle caps have surprisingly good arguments around why they are used beyond the water traders of the Hub. Basically, becoming a medium of exchange is more based on mutual consent than it is on logic.. Shells, pieces of wood, large rocks, feathers, and shiny metals have all been used. Ragnar Benson, of the survivalist fame, claims to have found isolated African tribes that were using Austro-Hungarian bills in the 70s. Unless there's a government that forces something, pretty much anything can and will be used. By selecting it as a currency, the water traders turned bottle caps into a representative currency, each cap was a certain amount of pure water. They gave it some base level of value that was universally accepted. Outside the Hub, people were willing to trade for them since they had value, prompting other people to accept them on since they could be used in trade, gradually shifting it to something like fiat, abet unbacked by a government. Fallout has a surprising amount of trade across the US, where jet reached the East Coast and the Wasteland Survival Guide reached the West in a couple decades. Over 100 years, it's completely reasonable for bottle caps to become an accepted medium of exchange, valued because people value them. With regards to unit of account, bottle cap or not is pretty effective. And, since it doesn't have higher denominations, which could introduce the potential for arbitrage, it works. Abet annoying to count out hundreds or thousands of caps of you had to do it manually. For a store of value, after 100 years as an accepted currency, most large stashes would have been found, and the only input would be through Nuka cola, which is more valuable as soda than caps. And, as described in game, without a press and marking machine, counterfeiting is difficult; labor intensive and involved. There really isn't much way for more caps to come in, which preserves its value. The greatest issue with bottle caps is long term deflation as the population expands, but, while the wasteland continues, population growth will be muted. Consequently, caps in the Fallout universe ought to provide a stable bedrock for longer term business and functioning governance. Assuming that the world’s inability to actually rebuild despite that being the story for hundreds of years gets resolved. So what? So, what makes a good fictional currency? Well, that’s mostly fulfilling the functions of a currency.
Medium of Exchange – that can be nearly anything, as long as it is universally accepted. Attempting to create a new currency for each trader, like some sort of munted script, would be horrible and useless.
Store of Value – The currency should not be easy to counterfeit, which implies 2 things. Either that it is nearly worthless on its’ own (like paper currency) or that the value is derived from a hard to fake commodity, like gold. At the same time, making this needs to be difficult, or else you have the issue of the Elder Scrolls with Transmutation and turning iron into gold, which is also the foundation of their currency. Hyperinflation means broken economies.
Unit of Account – If you’re going to have more than one currency, you need to directly tie them together. More money should be based on the same features as the Store of Value, either just a bigger number on the front, or a larger chunk of hard to adulterate or change money.
And, if you think you’ve solved a major problem, you really really should talk to an economist before designing your world around a special feature.
There are so many cryptocurrencies andso many exchanges in the market. How about the prices among all these different exchanges? Just a small price difference? Certainly NOT! Take Bitcoin for example, the price difference can be 21% at the same time! The exchange with the best liquidity is the place with the best price? Hmm, not really. Then how can you find the best price to buy crypto in order to maximize your profit? The 3 products below are what you need.
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Review: The most thrilling 24 hours in Bitcoin history
From 12:00 on March 12th to 12:00 on the 13th, Bitcoin, the most influential currency in the cryptocurrency industry, suffered two major declines, and its price fell from a maximum of 7,672 USD to a minimum of 3,800 USD (data from Huobi, the next Same), the decline was 50.4%, which means that the price of Bitcoin has achieved a fairly accurate "half price" in these 24 hours. Previously, Bitcoin's "halving market" was mostly considered to be an increase in market prices caused by Bitcoin's halving production, although many people have questioned the "halving market" as " The price is halved ", but when bitcoin walks out of the current bad market, it still surprises most investors. First plunge The bad 24 hours started at 12 o'clock on March 12. Due to the rapid spread of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States, the global financial markets have been raining for several days. After several adjustments, the price of Bitcoin has hovered up and down within the range of $ 7600-8200 in the previous three days. However, after 12 o'clock on the 12th, Bitcoin The price fell below $ 7,600 for the first time, breaking the psychological expectations of many investors, entering a rapid decline channel, and dropping to about $ 7,200 at around 18 o'clock. At this time, the decline of Bitcoin is still around 7%, which is a common occurrence in the history of Bitcoin. However, after 18 o'clock that day, the market turned sharply, and the price of bitcoin plunged again in a short period of time. It fell to US $ 5,555 within tens of minutes, a drop of 28%, and the amount of contractual positions on each platform exceeded US $ 2 billion. During the decline, most major exchanges such as Huobi, Binance, and OKEx experienced systemic freezes of varying degrees. Many users complained for a long time that the exchange app could not properly display the homepage, market page, and transaction page, and added positions, stops, and withdrawals. Obstacles such as cash withdrawal and cash withdrawal operations have also shown that this situation also highlights that mainstream exchanges still fail to address the ability of their trading systems to respond to extreme conditions. For this decline, the collective sell-off of large Bitcoin holders is considered to be the main reason. For example, Grayscale Investment, the world's largest crypto asset fund management company, was sold and sold 40,000-50,000 Bitcoins. News from the exchange said that Bitcoin sold 400,000. For a long time, bitcoin has been called "digital gold" by the blockchain industry, and has good risk aversion properties. During the tense situation between the United States and Iran in January this year and the global stock market fell, Bitcoin rose from $ 7,200 all the way to more than $ 10,000. Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes have been widely recognized in history, but this time caused by the new crown epidemic Under the risk of the global economic downturn, the decline in the price of bitcoin has become the asset with the largest depreciation among various mainstream financial assets, and its high-risk nature will most likely collapse. Some analysts believe that bitcoin should be further classified as an alternative asset. At a time when liquidity shortage is extremely serious, as a high-risk alternative investment asset with the highest volatility in the world, funds will naturally be drawn from the market by investors. Looking for safer, more liquid assets, prices plummet. "Everyone in the future will realize that Bitcoin is not digital gold, but" an amplifier of risk. " Its value cannot be anchored. Unlike other asset prices, which are affected by costs and prices, Bitcoin has no normal market value range. As of now, it does not have any convincing valuation basis, more like a swaying boat. Without the anchor, its value fluctuates greatly, and the impact of halving the market and supply and demand on it is far less important than psychological factors. "Said Cai Kailong, senior researcher at the Institute of Financial Technology of Renmin University of China. However, some people in the industry hold different opinions. "BTC is still the most powerful currency in the history of mankind. It provides liquidity 24 hours a day. This is something that other markets simply can't imagine, but because liquidity is too good, this time it just happened to happen in other markets. When funds are scarce, the first choice for selling supplementary funds has also led to the decline of gold. Of course, the amount of BTC that is currently much lower than gold is certainly unstoppable in a short period of time. "A Weibo blogger" "fhrp". In addition to the sell-off of large institutions, some mortgage lending platforms have also passively become an important boost for this downturn. In the past six months, the Defi concept has been particularly hot in the blockchain industry, and many cryptocurrency-based cryptocurrency lending platforms were born. As a result, a large number of large Bitcoin users will pledge the Bitcoin in their accounts to third-party lending platforms and use the USDT to borrow cash to purchase cash, which is equivalent to increasing leverage. However, these platforms are not mature in terms of mortgage rate setting and liquidation mechanisms. Users who increase the mortgage rate of assets have a slower transfer speed on the chain. As a result, during this period of rapid decline in the market, a large number of mortgage orders have lower mortgage assets than loans. As a result, the amount of bitcoin out-of-market positions this time was far more than in the previous period of large market volatility, which further exacerbated the selling pressure of the bitcoin spot market. From 19:00 on the 12th to the early morning of the 13th, the price of Bitcoin hovered in the range of 5800-6200 US dollars, and the market began to prepare for the next stage of the trend. Second plunge On the evening of the 12th, the stock markets of mainstream countries in Europe and the United States successively opened and collectively fell, and the stock markets of at least 11 countries, such as the United States, Canada, and the Philippines, melted down. At the close of the morning on the 13th, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 Index had the largest single-day percentage decline since the 1987 stock disaster. The Dow closed down about 2352 points, the largest drop in history. The bad performance of the stock market quickly passed to the currency market. Beginning at 7 o'clock on the 13th, the price of bitcoin plunged from the position of $ 5,800 once again, dropping all the way, and successively fell below $ 5,000 and $ 4,000. For the rapid decline of the market, many people in the industry believe that the main factor is not only the panic selling of the market, but also the mutual stepping on of contract investors. Weibo blogger "AlbertTheKing" pointed out that most of the long positions in Bitcoin leverage are in the BitMEX perpetual contract market. The long positions caused by the decline in bitcoin prices caused a series of short positions, which in turn caused arbitrage spreads and spot arbitrage. The party rushed in to open multiple orders and sell spot arbitrage at the same time, thinking it was okay. As a result, I did not expect Bitcoin to fall more and more fiercely, and his own arbitrage and long positions also burst. So at first, the leveraged bulls stepped down on each other, and later became the arbitrage party. . "Fhrp" also pointed out that because BitMEX only has BTC margin, ETH's permanent liquidation also needs to be undertaken by btc. The profit portion of the hedge order cannot be included in the margin, and BTC is not sufficient because of the card being in serious shortage. The exploding warehouse order was opaque, so that no one dared to pick up the corpse later, fearing that it would become a corpse. Of course, the key is the lack of a fusing system, so that the market can slowly wait for liquidity to keep up. Under the interweaving of many risks, the price of bitcoin is about 10:15. It has fallen below 3,800 US dollars in many exchanges such as Huobi and OKEx, which is 38% lower than the price of 0 on the day and 50.4% lower than 24 hours ago. This is the highest record in the 24-hour drop since the birth of Bitcoin. Such a precise decline cannot be doubted as the bad taste of the bookmaker behind the exchange, if the bookmaker does exist. Of course, it is not excluded that this situation is due to the tacit understanding among the main market participants, or a purely natural phenomenon. But judging from objective facts, there is indeed some evidence that the situation is unnatural. After bitcoin hit a low of $ 3,800, its price quickly rose in the next 20 minutes, rising by 59% to $ 5,250, but then fell rapidly. At the turning point of $ 3,800, which is 10:16, the BitMEX trading system, the largest bitcoin exchange in the cryptocurrency industry, suddenly stopped until 10:40. It can be seen that the time point when the Bitcoin price stopped falling rapidly and stopped rising rapidly was close to the time point when BitMEX went down and returned to normal. This shows that BitMEX has a huge influence on the secondary market, and it also makes a lot of One suspects BitMEX is manipulating the market. Sam Bankman-Fried, chief executive of Derivatives Exchange FTX, tweeted that he suspects BitMEX may have intentionally closed transactions to prevent further crashes and to avoid using exchange insurance funds. Mining company BitPico also tweeted yesterday, "According to our analysis, BitMEX Research has closed its long position of $ 993 million with its own robots and capital. Today the manipulation of the bitcoin market is caused by an entity and the investigation is ongoing. " In response to this incident, BitMEX responded that there was a hardware problem with the cloud service provider, and in a subsequent announcement, it was pointed out that the DDoS attack was the real cause of the short-term downtime. Why the downtime of the BitMEX trading system is difficult to verify, but from its objective impact, its short-term downtime plays a vital role in curbing the further decline in the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which has eased investment to a certain extent. The panic sentiment created by this has created space for the rebound and correction of cryptocurrency prices such as Bitcoin. Sam Bankman-Fried even speculated that if BitMEX did not go offline because of a "hardware problem" this morning (February 13), the price of Bitcoin could fall to zero. If compared with the traditional financial market, the effect of this BitMEX outage event is quite similar to the "fuse" mechanism of the stock market. Trading is suspended for dozens of minutes at the moment when investor sentiment is most panic, so this outage event Also aroused the emotions of many people in the industry. "BitMEX has helped the currency circle" melt out, "otherwise the chainless stepping will not know where to fall. After the fuse, everyone calmed down and the market returned to normal. Weibo blogger "Blockchain William" posted a blog saying, "The market is not afraid of falling, and it is not afraid of stepping on it. That is why. This is why the global stock market has melted down because investors panic. It is a bottomless pit. Once out of control, there is no bottom Now. " Of course, the factors that cause the market situation to reverse are not limited to this. According to the feedback from multiple users on social platforms, BitMEX and Binance's major exchanges forced the short positions of multiple accounts to close positions at 10 o'clock on March 13th, that is, the automatic lightening mechanism was in effect. According to the BitMEX platform mechanism, when investor contracts are forced to close out, their remaining positions will be taken over by BitMEX's strong closing system. However, if a strong liquidation position cannot be closed in the market, and when the marked price reaches the bankruptcy price, the automatic lightening system will lighten the investor holding the position in the opposite direction, and the order of lightening is determined according to the leverage and profit ratio . Specifically, due to the sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, a large number of long single-series bursts and the scarcity of market liquidity. In order to control the risk, the platform will automatically place some short orders with high profit ratios and high leverage on the market, increasing market flow. It also avoids the risk to the platform caused by the inability of the short-selling order to be executed in a timely manner. According to BitMEX's announcement, about 200 positions were automatically closed by the system. And Twitter blogger Edward Morra said, "On BitMEX alone, short positions worth about $ 500 million have been liquidated." If this data is true, it means that BitMEX's strong liquidation operation has brought more than 5 to the contract market. The market price of 100 million US dollars has a significant positive effect on the market that is being sold out. However, as a compensation, BitMEX also stated that it would contact each damaged user and compensate them according to the maximum potential profit that the investor obtained during the automatic liquidation. In any case, through the operation of exchanges such as BitMEX, the price of bitcoin has entered a recovery channel, and it is still hovering at the $ 5,000 mark, while driving the entire cryptocurrency market to pick up. After this thrilling 24 hours of bitcoin, the ideal "halving market" has disappeared. The real and brutal "halving market" is coming. Perhaps many investors and investment institutions have expressed their confidence in the crypto assets represented by bitcoin. The understanding will change in this regard, and the confidence of the entire industry needs to be rebuilt. This depends on the application value of bitcoin to be deepened.
Survivors of market disasters: In this disaster, some people actually made money
There is no need to repeat the tragic market. Various historical figures are present, and they all reveal a signal: this disaster is like an earthquake with no warning signs. The victims are everywhere, and the survival is a fluke. But in this disaster, there are still people who make money. If you still have the impression, on August 23 of last year, there was a problem with Amazon AWS 'server in Japan, which caused the products using the region's services to be affected to varying degrees, including the cryptocurrency trading platform. After discovering a problem with Binance using AWS, the user's deposit and withdrawal were suspended, but the trading platform using the Binance Quotation API failed to take timely measures, resulting in loopholes in market makers' strategies. That day, while Bitcoin was still steadily maintained at 10,000 USD, some users bought Bitcoin at a unit price of 0.32 USD, and when there was almost no fluctuation in the market, they used the mistake of the server to add western food for the night. A bottle of champagne. In this disaster after 5 months, some people still use the environment to find a way to survive. Ethereum 0 dollar purchase? A $ 0 purchase of Ethereum happened on March 13. The market plummeted, many mortgagors' positions were exploded, and ETH fell from $ 180 to less than $ 100 without resistance. The decentralized Defi market that depends on the value of ETH is naturally not immune, such as the MakerDAO platform. MakerDAO's borrowing logic is that users over-collateralize ETH to lend USD stablecoin DAI, but when the value of ETH fell rapidly, a large number of loans fell below the threshold and the system had to be liquidated. In other words, the user's loan was not repaid. Mortgage of ETH is also not available. So MakerDAO has a bad debt, the amount exceeds USD 4 million. In order to repay this bad debt, MakerDAO chooses to auction the collateral, that is, ETH, BAT, etc., and uses the stable currency DAI to bid. They need to use the auction proceeds to obtain repay loan. Under normal circumstances, such auctions are not too accidental. The feeding system reports the current price of ETH, and the bidders will probably trade at a price slightly lower than the market price. However, the background of this auction is the market's plunge. The transaction caused investors to intensive operations, which blocked the Ethereum network. It takes far more than usual gas fees to allow the miners to confirm the transfer as soon as possible. According to the browser, on the morning of the 13th, if only 44 gwei is used, the transfer confirmation time on the Ethereum network will take 72958 seconds, which is 20 hours. The MakerDAO debt auction on the Ethereum network has also been affected. The blockage of the network has prevented bidders with low gas costs from bidding in time, which caused participants to bid 0 DAI / ETH to drop the hammer. It can also be seen from the transaction records that the auction of 0 DAI was indeed successful. These lucky bidders only paid a transfer fee of US $ 1 and transferred 0 amount to obtain an ETH worth US $ 122 at the time. These people are undoubtedly fortunate. The external environment helped them to become the only game participants. The exchange of $ 1 for $ 120 and a profit of 11900% was much higher than the odds of players who risked bottom-swinging in fluctuations. However, from another perspective, MakerDAO's auction is to use the DAI obtained from the auction to pay off debts. However, due to network congestion, this situation has caused several free gifts, and MakerDAO's debt repayment is even worse. Pick up goods by luck If it is said that MakerDAO launches the auction, it is a helpless action of the team under extreme conditions. Bidders still need a bit of technical barriers to participate, but there is nothing to worry about, and there is almost no difficulty and cost. On the evening of March 12, investors discovered that the LINK / USDT trading pair of the Binance trading platform experienced a short-term flash collapse and once fell to the bottom 0.0001 USD. What's going on? Twitter netizens then asked Zhao Changpeng about the matter, and the latter's response was a shock. It turned out that someone had already launched the LINK trading pair as early as Binance, that is, on January 16 last year, a low was hung within 8 seconds after the real-time trading was opened. Price list, but it has not been closed because no fool will sell it at this price. Unexpectedly, more than a year later, this pending order was sold "strangely". "At that time we had no price range restrictions. We will not cancel user orders." Zhao Changpeng said that the platform will not deny this order because the operation is completely reasonable. It will not be rolled back for various reasons. In other words, even if LINK has experienced a large decline recently, at the current price of 2.3 US dollars, the profit of this transaction will exceed 2 million US dollars. US dollars, then he instantly won nearly 5 million US dollars. The cost of 100 dollars, the income of 2.4 million dollars, a real profit. In fact, similar examples of this kind of luck are not rare in the crypto industry. Except for Binance and the previous examples, BitMex and OKEx have also experienced similar situations, and more than once. For example, on December 6, 2017, Binance's XRP / BTC trading pair experienced a breakdown of the list. In a very short period of time, the XRP price was oversold to 0.0000002 BTC, which is basically negligible. On January 29, 2018, the price of the ADA contract on BitMEX also fell to 0.00000005 US dollars, which was also nearly 0; another trading platform, OKEx, also saw a large amount of 0.002 USD on January 14, 2018. Case, according to the official statement at that time, "a certain trader" quickly sold a large amount of ETH through market orders within 12 minutes. Interestingly, at the time, some people analyzed that "a certain trader" was actually an official market-making robot, and "a large amount" of 100 million Ethereum was eventually sold for 20 dollars. However, for ordinary people, if you want to encounter this kind of opportunity for leak detection, unless you are bored and place an order in advance, such a price is fleeting, and you ca n’t seize the opportunity simply by hand speed. In fact, at present, many trading platforms have actually adopted corresponding price amplitude filters, which specify the maximum / minimum price range of pending order prices. Oolong trading is very rare. Even if luck hits and catches up, it is very likely that the platform will intervene and the transaction will be rolled back. This situation has not happened before. Only this time, the trader who had placed an order on Binance for more than a year, even if he successfully leaked and successfully withdrew the coin, it can only be said that he hit the Grand Canal. Safe moving of bricks Buying a certain kind of token on a crypto trading platform, and then selling the token to another trading platform, earning the price difference is a moving brick in the crypto circle. Moving bricks has been an arbitrage behavior since the birth of the transaction. It belongs to a very old business. Arthur, the founder of BitMex, who now operates a trading platform, and Xu Mingxing of OKEx, were once members of the army of moving bricks. . This kind of brick moving was the most prosperous at the end of 2017. At that time, trading platforms such as Bithumb in South Korea also called the "Kimchi premium" due to the price difference between other platforms. Moving bricks is a kind of risk-free arbitrage. Players use energy to gain profits, although the single profit is not much. However, with the maturity of trading robots and quantitative trading teams, the spread of tokens between multiple regions or platforms is often wiped out in a matter of seconds. Therefore, the profit margin of manually moving bricks is now very small. Of course, it is not to say that there is no opportunity. Such an opportunity to make money is indeed hidden under the volatile market. "Buy at a low price and sell at a high price, this is simply the most secure way to make money in a plunging market!" Investors are excited about cryptography. Starting at 6:30 pm on March 12, cryptocurrencies have experienced sharp fluctuations, while Binance and Huobi When the bitcoin spread between the three trading platforms and OKEx was the largest, it even reached more than 700 US dollars. The discerning player quickly discovered the opportunity, "For half an hour, I made more than 10,000 with a principal of 20,000 yuan. Such an opportunity is usually not available." Buy and sell orders executed by the above investors at almost the same time, with a spread of nearly $ 450 When it comes to moving bricks, time is money. It is definitely too late to shuttle between multiple trading platforms. Many investors have now transferred the "battlefield" to the platform that focuses on aggregated trading. "The aggregated trading platform integrates the depth of multiple platforms. As long as there is a price difference between supported platforms, users only use One account can be bought and sold on multiple platforms, and it can be operated in a few seconds. "Wu Ling, who seized the opportunity from the extreme market in these two days, made nearly 50,000 by moving bricks in just a few hours. Yuan, the principal is no more than tens of thousands of yuan. It is understood that there are already multiple platforms targeting the aggregate trading business on the market, and the opportunity to move bricks does not often appear, unless similar to the extreme market appearing in the past few days, or some unique tokens, there may be soaring and plunging. Opportunities, as a whole, are not met a few times a year, and they are fleeting. However, whether it is MakerDAO auctions, ultra-low-priced pending order transactions, or arbitrage moving bricks under the new situation, these opportunities to make money are actually small probability and cannot be used as conventional investment methods. These seemingly easy profits are in the end a few people. Many people are trapped in extreme quotes in stuns. Most investors have no assets left on the trading platform overnight. Maybe this also makes many investors lose confidence in the industry, but in fact, in the face of such a market, after finishing our mood, we are more learning from changes. Learn the reasons for this disaster, learn the logic of the main control panel, learn what signals were ignored before the disaster, and prepare for the next time. At the same time, we can also see the development of the industry. For example, when all centralized trading platforms are down, DEX can still be implemented despite various problems. I hope that everyone still has confidence in the blockchain and cryptocurrency industries. Finally, I would like to remind everyone that the recent market changes are unpredictable. Please pay attention to risks and exercise caution.
After the Bitcoin crash: do others fear me for greed?
At 6:30 pm on March 12, Bitcoin dropped from $ 7211 to $ 5555.55. The bitcoin price dived again this morning, slumping nearly $ 2,000 again in half an hour, the lowest fell to $ 3,782.13, a drop of more than 40% in 24 hours. According to the data of the contract emperor, only Huobi, OKEx, Binance, and BitMEX exchanges had a daily short position of 3.133 billion US dollars, which reached the highest in a single day in history. The number of liquidated positions exceeded 110,000, which was also the highest in a single day. Also on March 12, the S & P index fell 260.74 points, triggering the fusing mechanism for the second time this week. The Dow hit its largest decline in history, at 2352.6 points. The Nasdaq fell 750.25 points to 7201.8 points. This is the third time in the history of US stocks. This fuse has been 33 years since the first fuse, but only 4 days have passed since the last fuse. Buffett shouted, "I only lived this way in 89 years." It is reported that Buffett lost $ 6.8 billion last night. According to incomplete statistics, with the exception of the United States, the stock markets of 11 countries including Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, and Pakistan plummeted. The five largest US technology companies, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, had a cumulative market value of $ 416.63 billion. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that the top 15 richest people in the world lost a total of $ 46.4 billion. Market panic or pullback demand? Regarding the meltdown of U.S. stocks this week, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the spread of the epidemic is not the main reason. It is more a decade of bull market for U.S. stocks. Some factors driving the rise of U.S. stocks are quietly changing, such as the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate There is not much space. Regarding this crazy drop in Bitcoin, Apocalypse Capital told InfoQ that there are two main reasons for this drop in Bitcoin: on the one hand, the bearish demand caused by the expected global economic downturn, and on the other hand, Bitcoin Callback requirements themselves. As we all know, Bitcoin will be halved in the second half of the year, but the trading market pays attention to speculation expectations. This round of rise has essentially halved the market. After hitting a high of 10500, Bitcoin is facing a callback demand. Of course, this round of downtrends is so rapid and there are only a handful of recurrences in the history of Bitcoin, which are inextricably linked to the decline in global stock markets, both of which are the result of expectations of a bearish global economy. However, Johnson Xu, chief analyst of TokenInsight, told InfoQ that the Bitcoin dip was mainly due to market panic, because some market participants bought bitcoins by buying mining machines, borrowing, etc., and expected to reduce their expectations by half. A linkage effect caused by everyone being too optimistic about the market. The market is overhyped because Bitcoin is halved, and some market participants are afraid to miss the opportunity to enter the market irrationally. The current market slump is driven by strong irrational behavior, which translates into a rapid downside response and quickly depletes market buyers' liquidity (flattening down). When the overall financial market panic or other unexpected events are caused by the New Crown virus and the global economic slowdown, market participants often seek to withdraw assets such as stocks and bitcoins and convert these assets into cash (cash is king). So has the recent gold sell-off. When the market panics, people ask for cash in the beginning instead of investing in safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, because gold is considered a high-quality asset, investors usually start with liquidity crunch and market panic. Cash in on good assets (because inferior assets are more difficult to sell in panic times). The Bitcoin crash this time has a certain connection with the decline in global stock markets, because the entire financial market is a globalized market, and there is more or less linkage between each asset. In addition, Forbes speculated that it may be because PlusToken scammers transferred bitcoins worth more than 100 million US dollars to the mixer, and then sold bitcoins, resulting in rising market supply.
Other people are greedy, I am afraid, others are afraid of me, greedy? In this case, should investors still expect "halving the market"? Johnson Xu believes that there is no such thing as a "half quotation", and most market participants are too optimistic about the halving of Bitcoin. Price fluctuations are not necessarily caused by halving, but may be caused by the sum of other factors. When everyone is saying that they are optimistic about the market, the existence of risk is ignored in the subconscious. At this time, the risk will be actually reflected, and the upside will gradually shrink. Bitcoin halving was written into the code, and it was not an accident. Bitcoin should be halved in a rational way. It is worth looking forward to, but not overly interpreting and speculation. However, Tianqi Capital believes that this plunge is a callback period for bitcoin's halving of the market, and each round of sharp decline also indicates the opportunity of the market outlook: cheap chips will be hoarded, waiting for the next wave of hype and explosion. Therefore, Tianqi Capital still believes that the market outlook of Bitcoin is worth looking forward to, provided that it is not frightened by the current fierce washing of the chips, after all, when the bear market is the worst, it is also when gold is everywhere. Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, Apocalypse Capital stated that it should judge according to the current trend. In this round of market, Apocalypse Capital initially chose to follow the downward trend of May 18, and Bitcoin has gradually dropped from a high of 10,000 to 3150 points, so the big support level predicted by this round happens to be 3700 today. Near the point. Data monitoring shows that some funds are involved in this price range. But whether it can hold on to this support remains to be tested. If the 3700 support cannot be maintained, it is very likely that it will hit the US $ 2000 level. Tianqi Capital believes that this is the market's last line of defense. Long-term investment is recommended to buy some relatively stable targets, such as BTC, ETH, etc. The bear market will eliminate many currencies, but if it survives, it will shine in the next round. Johnson Xu believes that the plunge is also a test to promote the healthy development of the industry. Extreme market is a test for the entire industry, especially for infrastructure, risk management, etc., so it is still optimistic and supports the development of the industry for a long time. For current investors, Johnson Xu offers the following suggestions:
Other people are greedy, I am afraid, others are afraid of me, greedy.
Global financial markets have also undergone major changes. From the data point of view, I don't think Bitcoin has the attributes of a safe-haven asset, but this market can test whether Bitcoin has a certain risk-avoidance capability. This is a global world. We need to analyze various markets, not just the digital asset market.
In the long run, we are still optimistic about the digital asset industry.
Does Bitcoin have a fusing mechanism? On March 9, after the U.S. stock market crash triggered the fusing mechanism, the market began a discussion of "whether Bitcoin should set up a fusing mechanism". But at present, most people are not optimistic about the Bitcoin fusing mechanism. OKEx CEO Jay Hao said that the fusing mechanism is difficult to implement in the digital currency market. In the face of a highly volatile market, setting the fuse point is a difficult problem. At the same time, for a 7 * 24h market, when a certain exchange breaks down, the price difference between the digital currencies between the platforms will increase, leading to arbitrage, and the fuse mechanism will eventually become a decoration. Du Wan, the co-founder of Contract Emperor, also said that it is unrealistic to use a fuse mechanism in the currency circle. The fusing mechanism first violates the original intention of the decentralization of the blockchain, and at the same time, it will touch the interests of the top of the currency circle ecological chain. For example, large trading teams can no longer use pins to obtain large profits. When the market is panic, exchanges with a fuse mechanism may lose traffic to exchanges without a fuse mechanism because of the run effect of traders. It can be seen that the current risk aversion measures in the traditional stock market are difficult to transfer to the fickle currency market in a short time, and the regulation of this market still has a long way to go. Investors should still be cautious when investing.
Chinese importers in Russia are buying up to $30 million a day of tether (USDT) from Moscow’s over-the-counter trading desks.
They use the cryptocurrency to send large sums back to their home country, which has strict capital controls.
Previously the merchants used bitcoin for this, but when the market crashed in 2018 they switched to tether, which is designed to maintain parity with the U.S. dollar.
Despite longstanding questions about USDT’s collateral, in this market “nobody actually cares if tether is backed or not,” says one Moscow trader.
Vrrrrrrrrrrrrr….. The cash-counting machines were softly buzzing in an office with floor-to-ceiling windows overlooking Moscow’s landmarks. “Hear that sound?” asked the head of an over-the-counter (OTC) cryptocurrency trading desk — let’s call him ‘Oleg’ — who requested his real name and company be withheld. “You can hear it 24/7 in here.” Business is brisk thanks to a constant flow of Chinese merchants who come in daily with heavy bags of cash. Oleg said his OTC desk sells about $3 million worth of crypto every day. Most of it usually goes to China. But what’s perhaps most surprising is which crypto. Only 20 percent of Oleg’s sales are in bitcoin, the oldest cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization. The other 80 percent is in the dollar-pegged token known as tether, or USDT. Tether’s best-known application is allowing crypto traders to move money between exchanges quickly to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. But according to several Moscow OTC traders, it has at least one real-world use case – as the go-to remittance service for local Chinese importers. The total volume of USDT purchased by Chinese businesses can reach $10 million to $30 million daily, these traders said. “They accumulate a lot of cash in Moscow and need tether to transfer it to China,” said Maya Shakhnazarova, head of OTC trading at Huobi Russia, the Moscow office serving high-roller clients of Singapore-based exchange Huobi Global. It’s a simple process. “A client comes with cash, we register the price at exchanges, when we agree on a price, we make a deal,” Shakhnazarova told CoinDesk. “The client hands over cash and a wallet address, the seller sends USDT to the wallet.” Why tether? It has the usual advantages of crypto – no limits on how much money can be sent or where – without the volatility that makes most coins infeasible for moving millions across the border daily. Despite longstanding questions about USDT’s purported dollar backing, exacerbated by the New York State Attorney General (NYAG) court case against the issuing company Tether, the stablecoin usually trades around $1. The tether-for-rubles purchases often take place in offices like Huobi’s in the steel-and-glass skyscraper district of Moscow City. “There are a lot of OTCs here in Moscow City, a bunch of offices in every building, and the volumes for them all can reach several dozens of millions of dollars a day. It’s all paid for in cash,” Shakhnazarova said. Tether’s killer app Chinese grey-market importers used to rely on bitcoin before the 2018 bear market, another OTC dealer, Roman Dobrynin, told CoinDesk. As the price was ever-growing, merchants and the intermediaries helping them buy crypto could make some extra money along the way. But since the beginning of 2018, hoping that your bitcoin will still be worth the same or more at the end of the transfer became too risky. “As the price was going down, tether became much more convenient to use,” said Dobrynin. “China is totally reliant on USDT, they trust in it a lot, plus it’s very liquid.” His own clients are mostly Chinese, and they usually find him by word of mouth, connecting via Telegram. To buy or sell USDT for dollars from Tether itself, a trader must be verified through the company’s know-your-customer (KYC) process. However, since the token runs on top of public blockchain networks (bitcoin, ethereum and tron), anyone can receive or send it, and secondary trades are unrestricted. Tether did not respond to requests for comment by press time. Back in China, the merchants can exchange USDT for fiat easily, even though the People’s Bank of China banned fiat-to-crypto spot trading in September 2017, forcing the exchanges to move out of the country and limiting trading to crypto-to-crypto pairs. Chinese traders who need to liquidate crypto assets into Chinese yuan can still go to an OTC market maker, such as those registered on exchanges like Huobi and OKEx, to get matched with buyers and send them crypto after receiving a wire transfer via a bank, AliPay or WeChat Pay. Critics of Tether have long questioned whether the stablecoin was fully backed 1:1 with dollars, as the company long insisted. The NYAG case revealed that Tether had loaned a big chunk of its capital reserves to Bitfinex, an exchange with overlapping management and owners, leaving the coin only 74 percent collateralized by cash and equivalents. None of this seems to faze the Moscow traders or their Chinese clients. “Nobody actually cares if tether is backed or not,” says Konstantin Plavnik, chief operating officer of Moscow-based crypto derivatives exchange Xena. Confidence in Tether’s solvency relies on long-time habit and convenience: this market needs tether, so tether is trusted. OTC traders also point out that USDT’s daily volume exceeds its supply in circulation several times over, which indicates that people turn the token around multiple times during the day. For example, according to CoinMarketCap, on July 29, the 24-hour volume of USDT was recorded at $17.5 billion, while the total supply was just around $4 billion. The turnaround of tether is fast, so for the merchants using the token for remittances, whether it’s worth something or not matters only within one day. Large batches of USDT get transferred to China overnight and then exchanged for yuan, crypto entrepreneurs in Moscow told CoinDesk. “USDT will stay propped by the power of habit and trust of its users,” said Vladislav Bulochnikov, the head of product at crypto wallet app provider Chatex. “Even if it loses half of its backing — it’ll still be out there.” Skirting capital controls Stepping back, the Chinese government maintains strict capital controls, limiting the amount of foreign currency anyone can buy or sell to $50,000 a year. People can apply for an additional quota, but still the amount of currency they can buy and sell will be limited. In this situation, some Chinese have opted to use crypto to move money across the border, Bloomberg reported in 2017. The fact that Chinese merchants bringing cheap goods to Moscow’s shopping malls use crypto to move money around was all but officially recognized by the Russian authorities last year. Several large malls in the city account for around $9.5 billion of unregulated cash flow monthly, and most of the merchants are from China, said Yuri Polupanov, the Bank of Russia’s head of financial monitoring and currency control, during an event hosted by Thomson Reuters in Moscow in April 2018. These malls, located inside huge warehouses on the outskirts of Moscow, host multiple retail stands, selling mostly clothing, usually for cheap and for cash. They are shopping Meccas for people who can’t afford to spend much on their wardrobes and avoid even mass-market chain stores. “We see most of the revenue turned into cryptocurrency, which is not reported in any way at the moment,” Polupanov said at the Thomson Reuters event, according to the RBK news agency. “We see simultaneous transfers of that cryptocurrency via email to the homeland of those merchants and producers, and the following exchange of it for the local currency there.” According to a March 2019 report in the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, cash would be received at places like a hotel called “Druzhba” (“Friendship” in Russian), located next to the shopping mall named “Moscow.” Then this cash would be swapped for crypto and sent to Hong Kong. The wholesale trade offices at Druzhba could be turning around $10 million to $12 million daily, Novaya Gazeta’s sources estimated. The operations were ceased for a short time after police raided the hotel, along with the malls mentioned by the Bank of Russia, in March of this year. Small crypto desks are still functioning at those malls, OTC trader Dobrynin believes, though they likely don’t provide the volumes merchants need. Outside traders are often afraid to go to those areas to make deals as things can get dangerous there, he said, explaining:
“The personnel working there can sell somebody information about how much money you have, and some armed people can meet you on your way back. People go there only with armed bodyguards.”
Wolfie Zhao contributed reporting. Russian ruble and Chinese yuan banknotes, image viaShutterstock
Lastupdated2018-01-29 This post is a collaboration with the Bitcoin community to create a one-stop source for Lightning Network information. There are still questions in the FAQ that are unanswered, if you know the answer and can provide a source please do so!
Lightning Network White Paper - The protocol has changed since this original paper, but covers the mid-level mechanics of the Lightning Network with an emphasis on the smart contracts that make it trustless
If you can answer please PM me and include source if possible. Feel free to help keep these answers up to date and as brief but correct as possible
Is Lightning Bitcoin?
Yes. You pick a peer and after some setup, create a bitcoin transaction to fund the lightning channel; it’ll then take another transaction to close it and release your funds. You and your peer always hold a bitcoin transaction to get your funds whenever you want: just broadcast to the blockchain like normal. In other words, you and your peer create a shared account, and then use Lightning to securely negotiate who gets how much from that shared account, without waiting for the bitcoin blockchain.
Is the Lightning Network open source?
Yes, Lightning is open source. Anyone can review the code (in the same way as the bitcoin code)
Who owns and controls the Lightning Network?
Similar to the bitcoin network, no one will ever own or control the Lightning Network. The code is open source and free for anyone to download and review. Anyone can run a node and be part of the network.
I’ve heard that Lightning transactions are happening “off-chain”…Does that mean that my bitcoin will be removed from the blockchain?
No, your bitcoin will never leave the blockchain. Instead your bitcoin will be held in a multi-signature address as long as your channel stays open. When the channel is closed; the final transaction will be added to the blockchain. “Off-chain” is not a perfect term, but it is used due to the fact that the transfer of ownership is no longer reflected on the blockchain until the channel is closed.
Do I need a constant connection to run a lightning node?
Not necessarily, Example: A and B have a channel. 1 BTC each. A sends B 0.5 BTC. B sends back 0.25 BTC. Balance should be A = 0.75, B = 1.25. If A gets disconnected, B can publish the first Tx where the balance was A = 0.5 and B = 1.5. If the node B does in fact attempt to cheat by publishing an old state (such as the A=0.5 and B=1.5 state), this cheat can then be detected on-chain and used to steal the cheaters funds, i.e., A can see the closing transaction, notice it's an old one and grab all funds in the channel (A=2, B=0). The time that A has in order to react to the cheating counterparty is given by the CheckLockTimeVerify (CLTV) in the cheating transaction, which is adjustable. So if A foresees that it'll be able to check in about once every 24 hours it'll require that the CLTV is at least that large, if it's once a week then that's fine too. You definitely do not need to be online and watching the chain 24/7, just make sure to check in once in a while before the CLTV expires. Alternatively you can outsource the watch duties, in order to keep the CLTV timeouts low. This can be achieved both with trusted third parties or untrusted ones (watchtowers). In the case of a unilateral close, e.g., you just go offline and never come back, the other endpoint will have to wait for that timeout to expire to get its funds back. So peers might not accept channels with extremely high CLTV timeouts. -- Source
What Are Lightning’s Advantages?
Tiny payments are possible: since fees are proportional to the payment amount, you can pay a fraction of a cent; accounting is even done in thousandths of a satoshi. Payments are settled instantly: the money is sent in the time it takes to cross the network to your destination and back, typically a fraction of a second.
Does Lightning require Segregated Witness?
Yes, but not in theory. You could make a poorer lightning network without it, which has higher risks when establishing channels (you might have to wait a month if things go wrong!), has limited channel lifetime, longer minimum payment expiry times on each hop, is less efficient and has less robust outsourcing. The entire spec as written today assumes segregated witness, as it solves all these problems.
Can I Send Funds From Lightning to a Normal Bitcoin Address?
No, for now. For the first version of the protocol, if you wanted to send a normal bitcoin transaction using your channel, you have to close it, send the funds, then reopen the channel (3 transactions). In future versions, you and your peer would agree to spend out of your lightning channel funds just like a normal bitcoin payment, allowing you to use your lightning wallet like a normal bitcoin wallet.
Can I Make Money Running a Lightning Node?
Not really. Anyone can set up a node, and so it’s a race to the bottom on fees. In practice, we may see the network use a nominal fee and not change very much, which only provides an incremental incentive to route on a node you’re going to use yourself, and not enough to run one merely for fees. Having clients use criteria other than fees (e.g. randomness, diversity) in route selection will also help this.
What is the release date for Lightning on Mainnet?
Would there be any KYC/AML issues with certain nodes?
Nope, because there is no custody ever involved. It's just like forwarding packets. -- Source
What is the delay time for the recipient of a transaction receiving confirmation?
Furthermore, the Lightning Network scales not with the transaction throughput of the underlying blockchain, but with modern data processing and latency limits - payments can be made nearly as quickly as packets can be sent. -- Source
How does the lightning network prevent centralization?
How would the lightning network work between exchanges?
Each exchange will get to decide and need to implement the software into their system, but some ideas have been outlined here: Google Doc - Lightning Exchanges Note that by virtue of the usual benefits of cost-less, instantaneous transactions, lightning will make arbitrage between exchanges much more efficient and thus lead to consistent pricing across exchange that adopt it. -- Source
How do lightning nodes find other lightning nodes?
Does every user need to store the state of the complete Lightning Network?
According to Rusty's calculations we should be able to store 1 million nodes in about 100 MB, so that should work even for mobile phones. Beyond that we have some proposals ready to lighten the load on endpoints, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. -- Source
Would I need to download the complete state every time I open the App and make a payment?
No you'd remember the information from the last time you started the app and only sync the differences. This is not yet implemented, but it shouldn't be too hard to get a preliminary protocol working if that turns out to be a problem. -- Source
What needs to happen for the Lightning Network to be deployed and what can I do as a user to help?
Lightning is based on participants in the network running lightning node software that enables them to interact with other nodes. This does not require being a full bitcoin node, but you will have to run "lnd", "eclair", or one of the other node softwares listed above. All lightning wallets have node software integrated into them, because that is necessary to create payment channels and conduct payments on the network, but you can also intentionally run lnd or similar for public benefit - e.g. you can hold open payment channels or channels with higher volume, than you need for your own transactions. You would be compensated in modest fees by those who transact across your node with multi-hop payments. -- Source
Is there anyway for someone who isn't a developer to meaningfully contribute?
Sure, you can help write up educational material. You can learn and read more about the tech at http://dev.lightning.community/resources. You can test the various desktop and mobile apps out there (Lightning Desktop, Zap, Eclair apps). -- Source
Do I need to be a miner to be a Lightning Network node?
Do I need to run a full Bitcoin node to run a lightning node?
lit doesn't depend on having your own full node -- it automatically connects to full nodes on the network. -- Source LND uses a light client mode, so it doesn't require a full node. The name of the light client it uses is called neutrino
How does the lightning network stop "Cheating" (Someone broadcasting an old transaction)?
Upon opening a channel, the two endpoints first agree on a reserve value, below which the channel balance may not drop. This is to make sure that both endpoints always have some skin in the game as rustyreddit puts it :-) For a cheat to become worth it, the opponent has to be absolutely sure that you cannot retaliate against him during the timeout. So he has to make sure you never ever get network connectivity during that time. Having someone else also watching for channel closures and notifying you, or releasing a canned retaliation, makes this even harder for the attacker. This is because if he misjudged you being truly offline you can retaliate by grabbing all of its funds. Spotty connections, DDoS, and similar will not provide the attacker the necessary guarantees to make cheating worthwhile. Any form of uncertainty about your online status acts as a deterrent to the other endpoint. -- Source
How many times would someone need to open and close their lightning channels?
You typically want to have more than one channel open at any given time for redundancy's sake. And we imagine open and close will probably be automated for the most part. In fact we already have a feature in LND called autopilot that can automatically open channels for a user. Frequency will depend whether the funds are needed on-chain or more useful on LN. -- Source
Will the lightning network reduce BTC Liquidity due to "locking-up" funds in channels?
When setting up a Lightning Network Node are fees set for the entire node, or each channel when opened?
You don't really set up a "node" in the sense that anyone with more than one channel can automatically be a node and route payments. Fees on LN can be set by the node, and can change dynamically on the network. -- Source
Can Lightning routing fees be changed dynamically, without closing channels?
Yes but it has to be implemented in the Lightning software being used. -- Source
How can you make sure that there will be routes with large enough balances to handle transactions?
You won't have to do anything. With autopilot enabled, it'll automatically open and close channels based on the availability of the network. -- Source
How does the Lightning Network stop flooding nodes (DDoS) with micro transactions? Is this even an issue?
The essence of the strategy is an immediate profit. For example, you buy 100 XRP at $0.23. After a few minutes, the rate grows up to $0.24, and you sell. The profit is just $1, but It didn’t take much time. The strategy is good for trading in small volumes – the risk is minimum.
Using the strategy, one takes advantage of price differences between exchanges. For example, you buy some crypto on Bitfinex, then go to Poloniex and sell it at a higher price. The shortcoming of the strategy is that a fee should be considered since it can be high enough to eliminate the profitable differences. Generally, a price discrepancy of 2% or more is a sign of a lucrative deal.
Statistical arbitrage is a more complex modification of the previous strategy. The scheme is the following: you buy a currency on an exchange, change it to coins on another and, eventually, sell for fiat. The point is to use a price correction lag between those exchanges, getting a 5% profit.
Formation of a crypto portfolio
The strategy is based on balanced trading, which means that the assets are allocated among several cryptocurrencies. It is assumed that the rises of some currencies compensate for the falls of others. For example, Bitcoin and altcoins can act like this. Dogecoin and Monero, Ripple and Ethereum have proven to be useful in the creation of a crypto portfolio.
The strategy is designed for a long-time period. The point is very simple: you buy a cryptocurrency and wait until the price is significantly higher than it was initially. To use the strategy, one has to study the market carefully, pick a currency with both a low price and prospects for growth, and be patient. The letter, given the notorious volatility of the market, is a matter of special importance since it is extremely hard to resist the temptation to get rid of the assets at a time of a sharp falling. You’d better figure out the exact price to wait for and not pay any attention to all inevitable unpredictable fluctuations. We hope the post will help you to pick a strategy, which would prove efficiency. Trade wise!
There is nothing wrong, it is the dog village. In the currency circle, it is the people who hold a lot of coins that affect the price of the currency. As a dog village with sufficient funds, the media of the combined currency circle releases the news and guides the impetuous small leek to follow suit and let the currency price Rising and falling are a breeze. So who are the dog villages with a lot of funds? The first part is the miners. They are the source of the coins. Bitcoins are generated by mining. This part of the total bitcoin is becoming less and less. If the miners do not have Tun currency, it will lose control of the market currency price. The second part is the exchange. The exchange has a large number of users' coins. As long as the user's coins are on the exchange, it cannot be used, but as long as the data of the user's funds is available, the exchange has room to operate. After all, this is An era when data is king. The third part is the capital fund team. When we wanted EOS to be a super node, the real estate speculators in Wenzhou all came in. It was because of the involvement of these capitals that it affected the currency price and caused a real wave of fire. Therefore, with so many powerful bookmakers in the hands, the speculators will obey it. Is there no way to make money by speculating in coins? In fact, in the dogfights of major dog villages, we still have money-making skills, such as adding people to a fund team, depositing funds, and having funds to invest to earn income. Basically is to lie down and make money. At present, in the digital currency wealth management market, there are many products with annualized income of more than 10%. For example, fund company Bitcapital, which obtains excess returns through long-term holding of high-quality digital assets. At present, the arbitrage treasure jointly launched by it and the QB exchange is a good wealth management product. The basic strategy is to use the spread of digital currency spot in different markets to carry out cross-market arbitrage, which has brought stable returns to users for a long time since 2013.Expected annualized earnings can be as high as 12%.The currency circle is ups and downs, and winning in stability is the long-term way.
Rebalancing Crypto Portfolio: What is BAT, Brave, PAY & TenX?
Your cryptocurrency, for example, Bitcoin, can register at different prices when comparing two exchanges. Therefore, you buy the lower-priced Bitcoin from one exchange and sell it to the higher-priced Bitcoin exchange. You can also buy in large quantities which can give you handsome gains once sold in the market at a higher price. This is essentially the principle of arbitrage. Two major kinds ... Arbitrage is taking advantage of the price difference between identical assets but in two different markets. Cryptocurrency arbitrage is fundamentally no different than other asset types and in this article, I will show you how I was able to achieve a 1 % profit an hour with nothing more than a hundred bucks in cryptocurrency and a little programming knowledge. Crypto arbitrage or Bitcoin arbitrage is the process of buying cryptocurrencies from one exchange at low prices and selling them in another exchange where the prices are high. Users can do it manually which take time while use of automated cryptocurrency arbitrage bot platforms are the process more efficient and profitable. It works just like a stock market, where people try to make a profit ... Before I explain and differentiate between deterministic and statistical arbitrage, and which type of arbitrage most crypto currency traders are talking about, I need to first talk about “Market Making”. W hen participants want to buy or sell a financial product they need to make their way to an exchange where buyers and sellers meet. The price they can trade at depends on the supply and ... Cryptocurrency arbitrage is about leveraging prices to your advantage. Crypto trading has been around for quite a few years now; however, the prices of cryptocurrencies vary from one exchange to another. Each crypto exchange has its value for specific cryptocurrencies, and this may be due to multiple reasons. Crypto arbitrage helps traders take advantage of the price difference by buying ...
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